Description: Presented at October 1986 Annual Meeting. This session discussion is about the use of simulation, or Monte Carlo, techniques to analyze complex insurance models such as estimating reserves, solvency considerations, and estimation of mortality and distribution of aggregate losses with the aid of a computer program

Description: This article uses a Bayesian approach to persistency to explore pension cost projection variability. The analysis includes the specifications of the model and how the model might be used to generate confidence intervals for pension cost projections.

Description: This paper presents a history of traditional topics like actuarial cost methods and assumptions, the history of past inquiries into the dynamic and stochastic nature of pension costs, and the perceptions and concerns of pension actuaries of the past. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: The purpose of this article is to revise the fuzzy regression portions of earlier studies and to discuss issues related to the Tanaka approach, including a consideration of fuzzy least-squares regression models. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2006.

Description: Recent articles addressed the subject of fuzzy regression [FR] and the term structure of interest rates [TSIR]. Their approach relied on possibilistic regression. Although possibilistic regression has been used in many applications, it has a number of limitations, not the least of which is its nebulous relation to the least-squares concept. As an alternative to possibilistic regression, this paper uses fuzzy least square regression to investigate the TSIR.

Description: This paper examines four and-a-half years of prescription records for an elderly population who have relatively comprehensive out-of-hospital drug coverage under the Pharmaceutical Assistance Contract for the Elderly program in Pennsylvania. The result is a discussion of the determination of non-parametric estimations of the distributions. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol 1.

Description: Abstracts of various papers published in ARCH 1983 Vol. 1

Description: The purpose of this paper is to discuss modified cost methods that have been proposed for small-plan valuations, The first portion of the paper deals with criteria for choosing a cost method. The next portions deal with small-plan characteristics and the potential shortcomings of conventional cost methods when applied to these plans. The final portion discusses two classes of modified cost methods that have been proposed for circumventing these shortcomings. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1983, Vol. 35.

Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: The authors have been involved with the development of an economically unbiased model for the distribution of pension benefits in divorce. While the research is not completed, it was felt that some of their findings and insights might be of interest to the actuarial community. In view of this, the purpose of this article is to: 1. Present the findings of the authors with respect to their review of major court cases, and 2. Identify major actuarial issues which are as yet unresolved. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, Vol. 1.